Ageing infrastructure: a grave threat to the railway
When I parked my bike in the Euston road opposite the station to attend the launch of a report on Britain’s ageing infrastructure,
When I parked my bike in the Euston road opposite the station to attend the launch of a report on Britain’s ageing infrastructure, I had to quickly flee to avoid being soaked as a bus splashed through a six inch deep lake covering a whole lane. It had indeed rained overnight but apparently the lake is an almost permanent feature on one of London’s crucial arterial roads. As I went into the Wellcome Foundation building where the media briefing was being held , I asked the doorman if there had been complaints about it. ’Oh yes, sir,’ he replied cheerily ‘but I have worked here six months and it is there every time it rains. Nothing happens.’
It was an apt metaphor for our failing infrastructure. Indeed, on the other side of Euston outside the old BR HQ there is such a massive accumulation of water that it has become known as the Euston Puddle. The report, Reviving our Ageing Infrastructure, lists numerous examples where the failure of a vital piece of infrastructure has had a widespread impact such as the Hammermith Bridge, the Clifton Bridge in Nottingham and, on the railways, the Nuneham Viaduct between Oxford and Didcot. The report’s key message is that a pound spent now will generate five to ten pounds in savings, and they are right, but politicians, with their short time spans, are always reluctant to view things too far in the future.
The authors of the report were clearly anxious to avoid presenting their work as a long whinge about the lack of money and therefore only mentioned ‘finance’ as one of the key seven factors needed to remedy what they reckon is a national emergency. While virtually every type of infrastructure is suffering from a combination of historic underfunding and new factors such as increased use, climate change and political uncertainty, the railways are having a particularly hard time because of the increasing demand from passengers as pre-Covid numbers are beginning to be exceeded. Any request for extra funding is not helped by the fact that HS2 already absorbs £7bn annually, almost the same as the annual spend on maintenance and renewal. The trouble with HS2 is that the moment it is not really part of the rail industry but, rather, a construction site. It will not yield any revenue for the railways for at least a decade, possibly more.
The annual spend on maintenance and renewal is already recognised by Network Rail as inadequate, and it is going to get worse as there is no slack in this Control Period as the previous one, CP 6 (2019 – 2024) overspent. As the report points out ‘Network Rail has projected that its assets are ageing faster than it can afford to renew them in CP7 [2024-2029], meaning a growing a growing portion of core rail infrastructure assets will be nearing the end of their expected life during the control period.’ So good luck to the next government in trying to rein back spending.
The concerns from the supply chain highlighted in the last issue of Rail prompted a contact of mine to express his concerns over a beer. It was not an easy listen and raised concerns that are unexpectedly urgent. My contact was not just worried about the effect on the supply chain, which is undoubtedly going to be severe and long lasting, but is also concerned that this underspending may result in a serious accident caused by lack of maintenance.
Network Rail acknowledged that its assets are in a state of ‘managed decline of assets’ in a statement to the Office of Road and Rail. There will be no improvement in the quality of the track over the next seven to ten years, and this will undoubtedly result in more speed restrictions and unscheduled delays. Already a quarter of delays are down to infrastructure failings and this number is bound to rise because of the underspending.
Shockingly, the private thinking in Network Rail internally is that it will take major incidents, probably more than one and possibly even three but definitely more than one, to make government aware that underfunding the railways is an unsatisfactory short term solutions that may provoke a crisis. Older readers will remember how the rail system all but closed down in the aftermath of the Hatfield accident in 2000 and there was almost a repeat dose after the Potters Bar disaster two years later.
The longer term problem is that an industry that is flatlining or, worse, clearly failing, is not an attractive proposition to new entrants. There is a powerful issue of morale here. People, particularly young enthusiastic go-getters, want to be associated with an industry that is doing well. Given that defence spending is going to soar, will people want to join the railways if they are seen, as they did in the worst days of British Rail in the 1970s, as a declining industry. And without the right staff, with the right skills, as pointed ou by the Royal Academy of Engineering report, progress is impossible. The worry therefore is that a managed decline will turn into a downward cycle.
Now here’s the really worrying concern about the state of the industry. The railways have had nearly a quarter of a century of an improving safety record. Since the spate of four major accidents in the early days of privatisation, there has only been one multiple fatal disaster which was at Stonehaven near Aberdeen in August 2020 caused by a landslip. The fact this is now a greater source of danger because of climate change was highlighted by the similar incident recently on the West Coast Main Line in which, fortunately, the train stayed upright. Network Rail has increased its spend on protecting the line from similar events but in truth far more is needed urgently to prevent a disaster.
Given that there is no magic money tree, the railways have to focus on doing things better. There is widespread dissatisfaction in the industry about Network Rail’s inability to improve its efficiency and to resist the temptation to gold plate projects. Moreover, it seems to be getting more, not less bureaucratic. Whereas in the past machinery used on the track would be approved by the type – in other words, if a particular design of model was used, any identical ones would be automatically accepted. Not now apparently, Every individual vehicle has to be approved and delays are caused by the lack of staff available to carry out the required inspections. According to one source, ‘everything is getting harder, more difficult and this red tape seems to be a way of stopping any potential overspend. That is not an efficient or desirable way to address spending issues.’
As with so many people I speak with in the industry, many issues could be resolved by sitting down around a table but Network Rail has always been aloof. The only hope is that with the new Great British Railways officially launched, this will change for the better.
Mystic Wolmar crystal ball clarity
Mystic predictions for 2025 have proved largely correct, but were rather unchallenging.
1. HS2 will continue to cost upwards of £5bn annually and no firm date for either the start of services or the completion of Euston will be announced this year. Definitely correct, though £7bn is the current spending
2. South West Trains, which was the first franchise to start operating in 1996 – I was on the inaugural train – will be the first to be taken back permanently in house under the new legislation Yes, but I missed the first train
3. The transport ministerial team led by Heidi Alexander will still all be in place, as will Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves Yes, but clinging on by fingertips
4. An announcement on rail fares will say that they will go up by less than the rate of inflation in 2026 Yes, though an understatement since they are being frozen
5. The second railways act which will create Great British Railways will become law in the autumn… Nooo, wrong, next summer
6. And for the two readers who follow QPR, we will finish 12th in May Well not bad, 15th actually
So a respectable four out of six but for 2026 I will try to be a bit more adventurous – do email me any suggestions christian.wolmar@gmail.com
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